Stade Nyonnais vs Xamax
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-09-11 · 19:30 CET
DLLLW
LLWLWThe score model made a Xamax win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stade Nyonnais 1.17 – 1.60 Xamax.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Nyonnais win | 26.4% | 26.5% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 24.6% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Xamax win | 45.9% | 49.0% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 62.0% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.2% | 42.5% | -12.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | 63.7% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 43.0% | -3.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stade Nyonnais 45.5 / Xamax 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.