Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctThe season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +1.7% at market prices across 45 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Stade Nyonnais produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 23.8' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Rapperswil-Jona – Lausanne Ouchy2026-10-09 17:30FT U3.5Model 64.6%Implied 59.2%▲ +5.4%- Stade Nyonnais – Aarau2026-10-09 18:15FT U3.5Model 63.5%Implied 58.1%▲ +5.3%
- Etoile-Carouge – Yverdon2026-10-09 18:15Under 2.5Model 46.7%Implied 43.3%▲ +3.4%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapperswil-Jona– Lausanne Ouchy | 2026-10-09 | 17:30 | FT U3.5 | 64.6% | 59.2% | ▲ +5.4% | 1.69 |
| 2 |  Stade Nyonnais– Aarau | 2026-10-09 | 18:15 | FT U3.5 | 63.5% | 58.1% | ▲ +5.3% | 1.72 |
| 3 |  Etoile-Carouge– Yverdon | 2026-10-09 | 18:15 | Under 2.5 | 46.7% | 43.3% | ▲ +3.4% | 2.31 |
Add Challenge League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctWe simulate the remaining Challenge League schedule 10,000 times a day. Lausanne Ouchy win the 2026-2027 title in 43% of them, projecting ~36 points; Winterthur are next at 45%. At the other end, Stade Nyonnais finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Winterthur's title chance up 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lausanne Ouchy | 21 | 36 | 31–40 | 43% | 98% | — |
| 2 | Winterthur | 18 | 35 | 31–40 | ▲45% | 98% | <1% |
| 3 | Yverdon | 16 | 31 | 26–36 | 9% | 86% | <1% |
| 4 | Kriens | 14 | 29 | 24–33 | 3% | 69% | 1% |
| 5 | Aarau | 12 | 26 | 20–31 | <1% | 30% | 9% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | Etoile-Carouge | 9 | 19 | 15–24 | — | 2% | 60% |
| 9 | Wil | 9 | 19 | 14–24 | — | 2% | 63% |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 2 | 9 | 5–13 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 45 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/switzerland/challenge-league/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Challenge League live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/switzerland/challenge-league">Challenge League stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Challenge League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lausanne Ouchy | 21 | 15.8 | +5.2 | |
| 2 | Winterthur | 18 | 14.2 | +3.8 | |
| 3 | Yverdon | 16 | 15.3 | +0.7 | |
| 4 | Kriens | 14 | 11.4 | +2.6 | |
| 5 | Aarau | 12 | 14.4 | -2.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Etoile-Carouge | 9 | 12.3 | -3.3 | |
| 9 | Wil | 9 | 10.9 | -1.9 | |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 2 | 7.2 | -5.2 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+