Challenge League title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Switzerland · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 25 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Lausanne Ouchy (59%), Winterthur (23%), Yverdon (17%). 37 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lausanne Ouchy | 11 | 25 | 3632–41 | 59% | 12 from 7 (1.71/game) |
| Winterthur | 11 | 21 | 3329–37 | 23% | 16 from 7 (2.29/game) |
| Yverdon | 10 | 19 | 3328–37 | 17% | 18 from 8 (2.25/game) |
| Kriens | 10 | 15 | 2723–32 | 1% | 22 from 8 (2.75/game) |
Below 1%: Xamax, Aarau, Etoile-Carouge, Rapperswil-Jona, Wil, Stade Nyonnais.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 36 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).