Rapperswil-Jona vs Yverdon
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-09-11 · 19:30 CET
DLWWL
WWLDWThe score model made a Yverdon win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rapperswil-Jona 1.43 – 2.25 Yverdon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapperswil-Jona win | 22.9% | 23.2% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 22.7% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Yverdon win | 55.0% | 54.2% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.0% | 68.1% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.1% | 48.5% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | 66.5% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.4% | 46.9% | +1.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rapperswil-Jona 29.2 / Yverdon 31.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.