Yverdon vs Stade Nyonnais
Challenge League, Switzerland · 2026-09-06 · 14:00 CET
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DLLLWThe score model made a Yverdon win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 4:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Yverdon 2.34 – 0.82 Stade Nyonnais.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yverdon win | 70.3% | 66.5% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.3% | 19.1% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Stade Nyonnais win | 10.4% | 14.4% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | 65.5% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.8% | 45.3% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | 58.4% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.6% | 45.1% | -1.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Yverdon 30.9 / Stade Nyonnais 44.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.