Landskrona vs Sundsvall
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-15 · 19:00 CET
LWWWL
LLWLLThe score model made a Landskrona win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 4:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Landskrona 1.67 – 0.81 Sundsvall.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landskrona win | 57.5% | 68.6% | -11.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 19.2% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Sundsvall win | 17.7% | 12.2% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | 57.3% | -12.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 36.0% | -12.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% | 49.1% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 39.0% | -10.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Landskrona 43.8 / Sundsvall 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Landskrona vs Sundsvall in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.