Brage vs Sandviken
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-15 · 19:00 CET
DDLWL
LDWLDThe score model made a Sandviken win the most likely outcome at 38%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brage 1.62 – 1.63 Sandviken.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brage win | 37.9% | 32.6% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 26.1% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Sandviken win | 38.2% | 41.2% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.1% | 58.7% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.9% | 38.0% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.9% | 61.8% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.2% | 39.8% | +7.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brage 43.7 / Sandviken 39.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Brage vs Sandviken in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.