Ostersund vs Helsingborg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-14 · 19:05 CET
DWDDD
WLDLDThe score model made an Ostersund win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ostersund 1.44 – 1.26 Helsingborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ostersund win | 41.1% | 50.6% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.5% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Helsingborg win | 32.5% | 22.9% | +9.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 50.1% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 29.8% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 53.4% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 34.1% | -2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ostersund 43.8 / Helsingborg 43.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ostersund vs Helsingborg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.