Ljungskile vs Falkenberg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-13 · 17:00 CET
WLLDW
WWDWWThe score model made a Falkenberg win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ljungskile 1.33 – 1.69 Falkenberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ljungskile win | 30.1% | 38.1% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 26.9% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Falkenberg win | 45.5% | 35.0% | +10.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 55.8% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.7% | 35.2% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 59.6% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.9% | 38.4% | -0.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ljungskile 19.7 / Falkenberg 33.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ljungskile vs Falkenberg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.