Sundsvall vs Orebro
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-10 · 19:00 CET
WLLWL
LWDLDThe score model made an Orebro win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sundsvall 1.18 – 1.21 Orebro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sundsvall win | 35.2% | 26.1% | +9.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 26.6% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Orebro win | 36.5% | 47.3% | -10.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.9% | 50.9% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.0% | 30.2% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.0% | 54.2% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.2% | 34.8% | -11.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sundsvall 42.7 / Orebro 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.