Sandviken vs Oddevold
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-09 · 19:00 CET
WLDWL
WWDLWThe score model made a Sandviken win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sandviken 1.66 – 1.31 Oddevold.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandviken win | 45.3% | 42.3% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 26.9% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Oddevold win | 29.9% | 30.8% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 53.7% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.4% | 33.1% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | 58.0% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.4% | 37.4% | +3.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sandviken 39.3 / Oddevold 39.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.