Ljungskile vs Norrby
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-09 · 19:00 CET
DWLLD
LLLDWThe score model made a Ljungskile win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ljungskile 1.38 – 1.10 Norrby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ljungskile win | 42.9% | 46.3% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 25.7% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Norrby win | 29.6% | 27.9% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 59.4% | -14.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 38.7% | -14.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 62.1% | -11.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.0% | 40.8% | -14.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ljungskile 18.8 / Norrby 19.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.