Landskrona vs Helsingborg
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-09 · 19:00 CET
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LWLDLThe score model made a Landskrona win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Landskrona 1.63 – 1.16 Helsingborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landskrona win | 47.9% | 52.4% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 25.1% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Helsingborg win | 26.9% | 22.4% | +4.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 56.4% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% | 35.2% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 57.4% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.9% | 38.6% | +0.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Landskrona 43.3 / Helsingborg 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.