Orebro vs Ostersund
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-07 · 19:05 CET
LWDLD
WDWDDThe score model made an Orebro win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Orebro 1.30 – 1.24 Ostersund.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orebro win | 37.6% | 32.2% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 28.0% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Ostersund win | 34.7% | 39.8% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 52.1% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 31.4% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 57.0% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.2% | 35.6% | -6.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Orebro 42.5 / Ostersund 42.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.