Norrby vs Landskrona
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-05 · 15:00 CET
LLLDW
WLWWWThe score model made a Norrby win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Norrby 1.20 – 1.10 Landskrona.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norrby win | 37.8% | 35.6% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 27.1% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Landskrona win | 32.8% | 37.3% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.3% | 56.7% | -16.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.0% | 35.9% | -15.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | 60.1% | -13.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 38.8% | -7.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Norrby 18.5 / Landskrona 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.