Helsingborg vs Sandviken
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-05 · 17:00 CET
DLWLD
WLDWLThe score model made a Helsingborg win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Helsingborg 1.63 – 1.50 Sandviken.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helsingborg win | 40.5% | 40.9% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 25.3% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Sandviken win | 35.0% | 33.7% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.5% | 59.9% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.2% | 38.9% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | 62.9% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.0% | 40.9% | +6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Helsingborg 42.2 / Sandviken 38.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.