Oster vs Nordic United
Superettan, Sweden · 2026-09-04 · 19:00 CET
DLLWL
LWLDLThe score model made an Oster win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oster 1.71 – 1.27 Nordic United.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oster win | 47.2% | 31.2% | +16.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 25.9% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Nordic United win | 28.2% | 42.9% | -14.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | 60.5% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.9% | 39.7% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 63.1% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 41.1% | -2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oster 29 / Nordic United 18 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.