Malmo FF vs Orgryte
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-09-13 · 16:30 CET
DWLWL
DLLLWThe score model made a Malmo FF win the most likely outcome at 73%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 4:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Malmo FF 2.62 – 0.96 Orgryte.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF win | 72.7% | 66.0% | +6.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 16.1% | 19.2% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Orgryte win | 11.2% | 14.8% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.4% | 62.4% | +7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.1% | 41.5% | +6.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | 55.6% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.7% | 42.8% | +8.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Malmo FF 41.1 / Orgryte 17 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Malmo FF vs Orgryte in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.