Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 26 OctBiggest divergence
Kalmar – GAIS+12.7%
Away win · data 50% vs market 37%
Fastest starters
Vasteras SK31%
11 of their 36 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Elfsborg35%
13 of their 37 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Model vs market · 2025Walk-forward
When the model and the market disagreed by 2+ points49.8%
the model's side won 49.8% of 840 matches — walk-forward test, not the live record
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+10.5%Away wins paid out more than the market charged: +10.5% at market prices across 200 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-10.7 ptsMjallby produced performances worth 11 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
36%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.2' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Kalmar – GAIS2026-10-29 18:00Away winModel 49.6%Implied 36.9%▲ +12.7%- Halmstad – Malmo FF2026-10-28 18:00Under 2.5Model 54.6%Implied 44.1%▲ +10.5%
- Degerfors – Vasteras SK2026-10-28 18:00Away winModel 44.5%Implied 35.8%▲ +8.6%
- Brommapojkarna – Hacken2026-10-28 18:00Home winModel 33.1%Implied 24.5%▲ +8.6%
- Goteborg – Djurgarden2026-10-28 18:00BTTS: NoModel 46.7%Implied 41.7%▲ +5.0%
- Malmo FF – Hammarby2026-11-01 13:00Home winModel 30.4%Implied 25.6%▲ +4.8%
- Vasteras SK – Brommapojkarna2026-11-01 15:30Away winModel 32.5%Implied 27.8%▲ +4.7%
- AIK – Elfsborg2026-10-27 18:00Home winModel 37.4%Implied 33.8%▲ +3.6%
- Hammarby – Sirius2026-10-29 17:30Away winModel 21.4%Implied 18.8%▲ +2.6%
- Elfsborg – Orgryte2026-11-01 15:30Away winModel 16.4%Implied 14.2%▲ +2.2%
- Orgryte – Mjallby2026-10-29 18:00Over 2.5Model 59.8%Implied 58.8%▲ +1.0%
- Djurgarden – Degerfors2026-11-01 13:00DrawModel 17.4%Implied 18.5%-1.1%
- Hacken – Goteborg2026-11-01 15:30Away winModel 24.6%Implied 26.7%-2.1%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kalmar– GAIS | 2026-10-29 | 18:00 | Away win | 49.6% | 36.9% | ▲ +12.7% | 2.71 |
| 2 |  Halmstad– Malmo FF | 2026-10-28 | 18:00 | Under 2.5 | 54.6% | 44.1% | ▲ +10.5% | 2.27 |
| 3 |  Degerfors– Vasteras SK | 2026-10-28 | 18:00 | Away win | 44.5% | 35.8% | ▲ +8.6% | 2.79 |
| 4 |  Brommapojkarna– Hacken | 2026-10-28 | 18:00 | Home win | 33.1% | 24.5% | ▲ +8.6% | 4.08 |
| 5 |  Goteborg– Djurgarden | 2026-10-28 | 18:00 | BTTS: No | 46.7% | 41.7% | ▲ +5.0% | 2.40 |
| 6 | Malmo FF– Hammarby | 2026-11-01 | 13:00 | Home win | 30.4% | 25.6% | ▲ +4.8% | 3.90 |
| 7 | Vasteras SK–Brommapojkarna | 2026-11-01 | 15:30 | Away win | 32.5% | 27.8% | ▲ +4.7% | 3.60 |
| 8 |  AIK– Elfsborg | 2026-10-27 | 18:00 | Home win | 37.4% | 33.8% | ▲ +3.6% | 2.96 |
| 9 | Hammarby– Sirius | 2026-10-29 | 17:30 | Away win | 21.4% | 18.8% | ▲ +2.6% | 5.32 |
| 10 | Elfsborg– Orgryte | 2026-11-01 | 15:30 | Away win | 16.4% | 14.2% | ▲ +2.2% | 7.03 |
| 11 | Orgryte– Mjallby | 2026-10-29 | 18:00 | Over 2.5 | 59.8% | 58.8% | ▲ +1.0% | 1.70 |
| 12 | Djurgarden–Degerfors | 2026-11-01 | 13:00 | Draw | 17.4% | 18.5% | -1.1% | 5.40 |
| 13 | Hacken–Goteborg | 2026-11-01 | 15:30 | Away win | 24.6% | 26.7% | -2.1% | 3.74 |
Add Allsvenskan fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 26 OctWe simulate the remaining Allsvenskan schedule 10,000 times a day. Sirius win the 2026 title in 74% of them, projecting ~63 points; Hammarby are next at 15%. At the other end, Halmstad finish in the bottom three in 99% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Hammarby's title chance up 6 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sirius | 55 | 63 | 59–67 | ▼74% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Hammarby | 49 | 59 | 55–62 | ▲15% | >99% | — |
| 3 |  Djurgarden | 48 | 58 | 54–61 | ▼10% | >99% | — |
| 4 |  Hacken | 45 | 52 | 49–56 | <1% | 75% | — |
| 5 |  Elfsborg | 42 | 49 | 46–52 | — | 22% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 |  Degerfors | 20 | 25 | 21–28 | — | — | 77% |
| 15 | Orgryte | 19 | 25 | 21–28 | — | — | 77% |
| 16 |  Halmstad | 17 | 20 | 18–24 | — | — | 99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 40 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/sweden/allsvenskan/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Allsvenskan live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/sweden/allsvenskan">Allsvenskan stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Allsvenskan match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Away wins▲ +10.5%
at market prices · 200 matcheschart →
Away wins in Allsvenskan, 2026: across 200 matches the market's prices paid out +10.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −2.8%
at market prices · 200 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Allsvenskan, 2026: across 200 matches the market's prices paid out −2.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −5.1%
at market prices · 200 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Allsvenskan, 2026: across 200 matches the market's prices paid out −5.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −9.7%
at market prices · 200 matcheschart →
Draws in Allsvenskan, 2026: across 200 matches the market's prices paid out −9.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −12.6%
at market prices · 200 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Allsvenskan, 2026: across 200 matches the market's prices paid out −12.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −15.3%
at market prices · 200 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Allsvenskan, 2026: across 200 matches the market's prices paid out −15.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −16.0%
at market prices · 200 matcheschart →
Home wins in Allsvenskan, 2026: across 200 matches the market's prices paid out −16.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 55 | 45.5 | +9.5 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Hammarby | 49 | 52.1 | -3.1 | |
| 3 | Djurgarden | 48 | 45.5 | +2.5 | |
| 4 | Hacken | 45 | 40.9 | +4.1 | |
| 5 | Elfsborg | 42 | 36.4 | +5.6 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Degerfors | 20 | 26.0 | -6.0 | |
| 15 | Orgryte | 19 | 19.4 | -0.4 | |
| 16 | Halmstad | 17 | 21.4 | -4.4 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+