Biggest divergence
Djurgarden – GAIS+14.8%
Under 2.5 · data 59% vs market 44%
Fastest starters
Vasteras SK36%
10 of their 28 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
AIK36%
10 of their 28 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Blind ≥2% leans · 2025Backtest
Every lean, backed blind+24.4u
840 leans · 49.8% hit — walk-forward, not the live record
The season in numbers
The outlier
+6.3uBlindly backing away wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-6.8 ptsMjallby produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
38%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29.9' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Djurgarden – GAIS2026-09-14 17:00Under 2.5 ✓59.3%vs 44.4%▲ +14.8%- Goteborg – Halmstad2026-09-12 15:30Under 2.5 ✓55.1%vs 42.0%▲ +13.1%
- Hammarby – Brommapojkarna2026-09-13 12:00Under 1.5 HT ✓63.0%vs 55.6%▲ +7.4%
- AIK – Vasteras SK2026-09-12 13:00BTTS: No ✓48.1%vs 43.3%▲ +4.8%
- AIK – Mjallby2026-09-16 17:00Under 2.5 ✓54.1%vs 50.5%▲ +3.6%
- Malmo FF – Orgryte2026-09-13 14:30Over 1.5 HT51.8%vs 48.3%▲ +3.5%
- Sirius – Degerfors2026-09-14 17:00FT O3.544.5%vs 42.7%▲ +1.8%
- Elfsborg – Kalmar2026-09-13 12:00Home win54.8%vs 54.9%-0.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Djurgarden– GAIS | 2026-09-14 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 59.3% | 44.4% | ▲ +14.8% | 2.25 | |
| 2 |  Goteborg– Halmstad | 2026-09-12 | 15:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 55.1% | 42.0% | ▲ +13.1% | 2.38 | |
| 3 |  Hammarby– Brommapojkarna | 2026-09-13 | 12:00 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 63.0% | 55.6% | ▲ +7.4% | 1.80 | |
| 4 |  AIK– Vasteras SK | 2026-09-12 | 13:00 | BTTS: No ✓ | 48.1% | 43.3% | ▲ +4.8% | 2.31 | |
| 5 | AIK– Mjallby | 2026-09-16 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 54.1% | 50.5% | ▲ +3.6% | 1.98 | |
| 6 |  Malmo FF– Orgryte | 2026-09-13 | 14:30 | Over 1.5 HT | 51.8% | 48.3% | ▲ +3.5% | 2.07 | |
| 7 |  Sirius– Degerfors | 2026-09-14 | 17:00 | FT O3.5 | 44.5% | 42.7% | ▲ +1.8% | 2.34 | |
| 8 |  Elfsborg– Kalmar | 2026-09-13 | 12:00 | Home win | 54.8% | 54.9% | -0.2% | 1.82 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Allsvenskan schedule 10,000 times a day. Sirius win the 2026 title in 64% of them, projecting ~62 points; Djurgarden are next at 18%. At the other end, Halmstad finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sirius | 45 | 62 | 57–67 | 64% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Djurgarden | 38 | 57 | 52–62 | 18% | 97% | — |
| 3 |  Hammarby | 37 | 57 | 52–62 | 18% | 96% | — |
| 4 |  AIK | 32 | 50 | 44–55 | <1% | 42% | — |
| 5 |  Malmo FF | 30 | 48 | 42–53 | <1% | 27% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 |  Degerfors | 19 | 28 | 24–33 | — | — | 63% |
| 15 | Orgryte | 15 | 23 | 19–28 | — | — | 94% |
| 16 |  Halmstad | 11 | 18 | 14–22 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 81 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/sweden/allsvenskan/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Allsvenskan live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/sweden/allsvenskan">Allsvenskan stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Allsvenskan match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Away wins▲ +6.3u
159 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Allsvenskan match in 2026: +6.3 units over 159 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -7.9u
159 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Allsvenskan match in 2026: -7.9 units over 159 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -11.7u
159 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Allsvenskan match in 2026: -11.7 units over 159 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -14.9u
159 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Allsvenskan match in 2026: -14.9 units over 159 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -15.7u
159 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Allsvenskan match in 2026: -15.7 units over 159 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▼ -17.1u
159 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Allsvenskan match in 2026: -17.1 units over 159 flat-stake bets.Home wins▼ -23.3u
159 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Allsvenskan match in 2026: -23.3 units over 159 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 45 | 36.3 | +8.8 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Djurgarden | 38 | 35.8 | +2.2 | |
| 3 | Hammarby | 37 | 40.8 | -3.8 | |
| 4 |  Hacken | 32 | 31.2 | +0.8 | |
| 5 | AIK | 32 | 24.9 | +7.1 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Degerfors | 19 | 22.1 | -3.1 | |
| 15 | Orgryte | 15 | 16.5 | -1.5 | |
| 16 | Halmstad | 11 | 17.8 | -6.8 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+