Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctBiggest divergence
Goteborg – Vasteras SK+9.9%
Away win · data 34% vs market 24%
Fastest starters
Vasteras SK32%
11 of their 34 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
AIK35%
11 of their 31 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
Model vs market · 2025Walk-forward
When the model and the market disagreed by 2+ points49.8%
the model's side won 49.8% of 840 matches — walk-forward test, not the live record
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+4.6%Away wins paid out more than the market charged: +4.6% at market prices across 176 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-8.9 ptsKalmar produced performances worth 9 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
37%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29.7' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Goteborg – Vasteras SK2026-10-09 17:00Away winModel 34.0%Implied 24.2%▲ +9.9%- Elfsborg – Halmstad2026-10-12 17:00Under 2.5Model 51.9%Implied 43.3%▲ +8.6%
- Malmo FF – Kalmar2026-10-12 17:00Home winModel 64.7%Implied 56.5%▲ +8.2%
- Hammarby – Djurgarden2026-10-11 12:00FT U3.5Model 70.3%Implied 63.3%▲ +7.0%
- Mjallby – Degerfors2026-10-10 15:30Home winModel 59.2%Implied 52.4%▲ +6.8%
- GAIS – Sirius2026-10-10 13:00Home winModel 43.5%Implied 41.2%▲ +2.3%
- AIK – Brommapojkarna2026-10-10 13:00Under 1.5 HTModel 65.5%Implied 64.1%▲ +1.4%
- Hacken – Orgryte2026-10-11 14:30Away winModel 14.2%Implied 13.1%▲ +1.1%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Goteborg– Vasteras SK | 2026-10-09 | 17:00 | Away win | 34.0% | 24.2% | ▲ +9.9% | 4.14 |
| 2 |  Elfsborg– Halmstad | 2026-10-12 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 43.3% | ▲ +8.6% | 2.31 |
| 3 |  Malmo FF– Kalmar | 2026-10-12 | 17:00 | Home win | 64.7% | 56.5% | ▲ +8.2% | 1.77 |
| 4 |  Hammarby– Djurgarden | 2026-10-11 | 12:00 | FT U3.5 | 70.3% | 63.3% | ▲ +7.0% | 1.58 |
| 5 |  Mjallby– Degerfors | 2026-10-10 | 15:30 | Home win | 59.2% | 52.4% | ▲ +6.8% | 1.91 |
| 6 |  GAIS– Sirius | 2026-10-10 | 13:00 | Home win | 43.5% | 41.2% | ▲ +2.3% | 2.43 |
| 7 |  AIK– Brommapojkarna | 2026-10-10 | 13:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 65.5% | 64.1% | ▲ +1.4% | 1.56 |
| 8 |  Hacken– Orgryte | 2026-10-11 | 14:30 | Away win | 14.2% | 13.1% | ▲ +1.1% | 7.65 |
Add Allsvenskan fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Allsvenskan schedule 10,000 times a day. Sirius win the 2026 title in 77% of them, projecting ~64 points; Hammarby are next at 16%. At the other end, Halmstad finish in the bottom three in 99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sirius | 51 | 64 | 59–68 | 77% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Hammarby | 43 | 58 | 53–63 | 16% | 99% | — |
| 3 |  Djurgarden | 41 | 56 | 52–61 | 7% | 97% | — |
| 4 |  Elfsborg | 37 | 48 | 44–53 | <1% | 32% | — |
| 5 |  Hacken | 36 | 48 | 44–53 | <1% | 33% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 |  Degerfors | 19 | 27 | 23–31 | — | — | 56% |
| 15 | Orgryte | 15 | 22 | 18–26 | — | — | 95% |
| 16 |  Halmstad | 14 | 20 | 16–24 | — | — | 99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 64 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/sweden/allsvenskan/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Allsvenskan live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/sweden/allsvenskan">Allsvenskan stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Allsvenskan match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Away wins▲ +4.6%
at market prices · 176 matcheschart →
Away wins in Allsvenskan, 2026: across 176 matches the market's prices paid out +4.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −4.8%
at market prices · 176 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Allsvenskan, 2026: across 176 matches the market's prices paid out −4.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −7.2%
at market prices · 176 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Allsvenskan, 2026: across 176 matches the market's prices paid out −7.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −11.2%
at market prices · 176 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Allsvenskan, 2026: across 176 matches the market's prices paid out −11.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −12.0%
at market prices · 176 matcheschart →
Draws in Allsvenskan, 2026: across 176 matches the market's prices paid out −12.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −12.7%
at market prices · 176 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Allsvenskan, 2026: across 176 matches the market's prices paid out −12.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −13.5%
at market prices · 176 matcheschart →
Home wins in Allsvenskan, 2026: across 176 matches the market's prices paid out −13.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 51 | 40.5 | +10.5 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Hammarby | 43 | 45.5 | -2.5 | |
| 3 | Djurgarden | 41 | 40.0 | +1.0 | |
| 4 | Elfsborg | 37 | 31.4 | +5.6 | |
| 5 | Hacken | 36 | 34.8 | +1.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Degerfors | 19 | 23.3 | -4.3 | |
| 15 | Orgryte | 15 | 17.9 | -2.9 | |
| 16 | Halmstad | 14 | 19.4 | -5.4 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+