Allsvenskan title race 2026: who will win the league?
Sweden · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 25 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Sirius (79%), Djurgarden (12%), Hammarby (9%). 62 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius | 25 | 55 | 6359–67 | 79% | 7 from 5 (1.40/game) |
| Djurgarden | 25 | 48 | 5854–61 | 12% | 14 from 5 (2.80/game) |
| Hammarby | 24 | 46 | 5753–61 | 9% | 16 from 6 (2.67/game) |
Below 1%: Hacken, Elfsborg, Malmo FF, Vasteras SK, AIK, Goteborg, GAIS, Brommapojkarna, Mjallby, Kalmar, Degerfors, Orgryte, Halmstad.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 42 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).