Elfsborg vs Kalmar
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-09-13 · 14:00 CET
LWWWD
LLLLLThe score model made an Elfsborg win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Elfsborg 1.73 – 0.99 Kalmar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfsborg win | 54.4% | 50.2% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 26.2% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Kalmar win | 21.2% | 23.6% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 51.3% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 30.7% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 53.7% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 35.0% | +0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Elfsborg 41.1 / Kalmar 27.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Elfsborg vs Kalmar in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.