Goteborg vs Halmstad
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-09-12 · 17:30 CET
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WLLWLThe score model made a Goteborg win the most likely outcome at 57%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Goteborg 1.66 – 0.81 Halmstad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goteborg win | 57.3% | 65.6% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.0% | 20.0% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Halmstad win | 17.8% | 14.3% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 61.6% | -16.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.7% | 40.8% | -17.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% | 55.2% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 41.7% | -8.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Goteborg 41.3 / Halmstad 40.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Goteborg vs Halmstad in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.