AIK vs Vasteras SK
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-09-12 · 15:00 CET
LDLLD
WLWWLThe score model made an AIK win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:4 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AIK 1.66 – 1.02 Vasteras SK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIK win | 52.0% | 46.5% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 26.9% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Vasteras SK win | 22.8% | 26.6% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 54.7% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.0% | 33.8% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | 58.0% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.1% | 36.7% | +4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AIK 40.3 / Vasteras SK 23.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.