Hacken vs Mjallby
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-09-11 · 19:00 CET
LDDWW
LDDLDThe score model made a Hacken win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hacken 1.51 – 1.45 Mjallby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hacken win | 38.9% | 63.5% | -24.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 20.8% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Mjallby win | 36.1% | 15.7% | +20.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 60.4% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.4% | 39.9% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | 55.7% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.3% | 41.5% | -4.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hacken 41.4 / Mjallby 40.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.