Mjallby vs Goteborg
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-09-07 · 19:00 CET
LDDLD
WWWWWThe score model made a Mjallby win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:4 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mjallby 1.74 – 0.92 Goteborg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mjallby win | 56.5% | 40.5% | +16.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 27.4% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Goteborg win | 19.4% | 32.0% | -12.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 53.4% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.8% | 33.0% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 58.2% | -8.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 36.8% | -0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mjallby 39.7 / Goteborg 40.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.