Malmo FF vs AIK
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-09-07 · 19:00 CET
WDWLW
DLDLLThe score model made a Malmo FF win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Malmo FF 1.73 – 1.15 AIK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF win | 50.7% | 55.1% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 23.1% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| AIK win | 25.0% | 21.8% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 60.5% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 39.7% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | 59.7% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.4% | 41.1% | +4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Malmo FF 40.7 / AIK 39.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.