Orgryte vs Hammarby
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-09-06 · 14:00 CET
LDLLL
LDWWLThe score model made a Hammarby win the most likely outcome at 74%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Orgryte 0.93 – 2.64 Hammarby.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orgryte win | 10.7% | 8.3% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 15.6% | 13.6% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Hammarby win | 73.7% | 78.1% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.2% | 72.1% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.9% | 52.4% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | 54.3% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.2% | 49.9% | -6.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Orgryte 16.3 / Hammarby 40.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.