Vasteras SK vs Sirius
Allsvenskan, Sweden · 2026-09-05 · 17:30 CET
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LWWWWThe score model made a Sirius win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vasteras SK 1.55 – 1.97 Sirius.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasteras SK win | 30.4% | 24.6% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 24.7% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Sirius win | 47.5% | 50.7% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.4% | 59.1% | +9.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.9% | 38.6% | +8.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 68.1% | 60.1% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.3% | 40.7% | +10.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vasteras SK 23.2 / Sirius 40.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.