Arenas Getxo vs Merida AD
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-10-18 · 12:00 CET
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DWLLLThe score model made a Merida AD win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arenas Getxo 1.45 – 1.57 Merida AD.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arenas Getxo win | 34.8% | 34.5% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 27.6% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Merida AD win | 40.0% | 37.9% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 53.6% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 33.0% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 58.3% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 37.2% | +3.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arenas Getxo 29.7 / Merida AD 11.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Arenas Getxo vs Merida AD in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.