Primera RFEF - Group 1

We simulate the remaining Primera RFEF - Group 1 schedule 10,000 times a day. UD Logrones win the 2026-2027 title in 90% of them, projecting ~79 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, UD Ourense finish in the bottom three in 94% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: UD Logrones's title chance up 5 points in a day.

#	Team	Pts now	Proj. pts	Range	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3
1	UD Logrones	16	79	70–88	▲90%	99%	—
2	Ponferradina	11	61	52–70	3%	52%	<1%
3	Zamora	10	59	50–68	1%	38%	<1%
4	Lugo	16	59	50–67	1%	34%	<1%
5	Mirandes	10	58	49–67	▼1%	34%	<1%
· · ·
18	CD Coria	5	43	34–52	—	<1%	32%
19	Arenas Getxo	2	36	27–44	—	<1%	75%
20	UD Ourense	2	30	22–38	—	—	94%

Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 320 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.

<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/spain/primera-rfef-group-1/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Primera RFEF - Group 1 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/spain/primera-rfef-group-1">Primera RFEF - Group 1 stats by Football Charts</a></p>

How each market's prices compared with what happened in every Primera RFEF - Group 1 match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.