The season in numbers
Blindly backing over 2.5 goals in every match beat the market this season. The other 4 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Arenteiro produced performances worth 16 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 33.5' on average.
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Primera RFEF - Group 1 match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Final table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tenerife | 79 | 73.1 | +5.9 | champions — earned it |
| 2 | Celta Vigo B | 68 | 53.7 | +14.3 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | Zamora | 64 |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
One email per matchweek: fixtures with data leans, who's outperforming the market, and anything it's mispricing. Starts with the 2026-27 season. No tips, no spam.
Statistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+
