Primera RFEF - Group 1 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Spain · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 15 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: UD Logrones (72%), Lugo (7%), Zamora (4%). 73 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD Logrones | 7 | 16 | 7364–82 | 72% | 57 from 31 (1.84/game) |
| Lugo | 7 | 19 | 6153–70 | 7% | 54 from 31 (1.74/game) |
| Zamora | 7 | 11 | 5950–68 | 4% | 62 from 31 (2.00/game) |
| Ponferradina | 7 | 11 | 5849–67 | 4% | 62 from 31 (2.00/game) |
| Mirandes | 7 | 11 | 5849–67 | 4% | 62 from 31 (2.00/game) |
| Cultural Leonesa | 7 | 11 | 5748–66 | 3% | 62 from 31 (2.00/game) |
| CD Extremadura | 7 | 9 | 5748–66 | 2% | 64 from 31 (2.06/game) |
| Pontevedra | 7 | 8 | 5546–64 | 1% | 65 from 31 (2.10/game) |
| Racing Club Ferrol | 7 | 13 | 5546–64 | 1% | 60 from 31 (1.94/game) |
Below 1%: Ath Bilbao B, Cacereno, Dep. Fabril, AD Merida, Unionistas, Barakaldo, R. Union, Real Aviles, CD Coria, Arenas Getxo, UD Ourense.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 310 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).