Primera RFEF - Group 1 predicted table 2026/27
Spain · The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 15 October 2026
- UD Logrones are the most likely Primera RFEF - Group 1 champions, finishing first in 72% of 10,000 simulations (projected 73 points; Lugo next on 7%).
- UD Ourense (85%), Arenas Getxo (84%), CD Coria (57%) are more likely than not to finish in the bottom 3 places.
- Pontevedra sit 15th today but are projected to finish 8th — the model rates them well above their current position.
| # | Team | P | Pts now | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Logrones | 7 | 16 | 7364–82 | 72% | 95% | 0% | 1st (72%) |
| 2 | Lugo | 7 | 19 | 6153–70 | 7% | 51% | <1% | 2nd (17%) |
| 3 | Zamora | 7 | 11 | 5950–68 | 4% | 39% | <1% | 3rd (12%) |
| 4 | Ponferradina | 7 | 11 | 5849–67 | 4% | 35% | <1% | 2nd (11%) |
| 5 | Mirandes | 7 | 11 | 5849–67 | 4% | 32% | <1% | 4th (10%) |
| 6 | Cultural Leonesa | 7 | 11 | 5748–66 | 3% | 27% | <1% | 5th (9%) |
| 7 | CD Extremadura | 7 | 9 | 5748–66 | 2% | 27% | <1% | 5th (9%) |
| 8 | Pontevedra | 7 | 8 | 5546–64 | 1% | 20% | 2% | 6th (8%) |
| 9 | Racing Club Ferrol | 7 | 13 | 5546–64 | 1% | 19% | 2% | 8th (8%) |
| 10 | Ath Bilbao B | 7 | 12 | 5445–63 | <1% | 15% | 2% | 9th (8%) |
| 11 | Cacereno | 7 | 12 | 5344–61 | <1% | 11% | 3% | 11th (8%) |
| 12 | Dep. Fabril | 7 | 8 | 5142–60 | <1% | 8% | 5% | 13th (8%) |
| 13 | AD Merida | 7 | 9 | 4940–58 | <1% | 5% | 9% | 15th (9%) |
| 14 | Unionistas | 7 | 7 | 4940–58 | <1% | 5% | 10% | 14th (9%) |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 7 | 6 | 4940–58 | <1% | 5% | 10% | 15th (10%) |
| 16 | R. Union | 7 | 9 | 4738–56 | <1% | 3% | 14% | 17th (11%) |
| 17 | Real Aviles | 7 | 8 | 4738–56 | <1% | 3% | 15% | 17th (12%) |
| 18 | CD Coria | 7 | 5 | 3930–48 | 0% | <1% | 57% | 18th (23%) |
| 19 | Arenas Getxo | 7 | 2 | 3426–43 | 0% | 0% | 84% | 20th (40%) |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 7 | 5 | 3426–42 | 0% | 0% | 85% | 20th (40%) |
Order = average final points across all simulations. Proj. pts shows the average and the 10th–90th percentile range. Percentages are the share of simulations in which the club finishes in that zone.
How this table is made
Every club gets an attack and a defence rating from a Dixon-Coles model fitted to the league's results (recent matches weigh more). Each of the 310 remaining scheduled fixtures is then played out 10,000 times by sampling a scoreline from the model, and the final table of each run is recorded. Ties are separated by goal difference, then goals scored; head-to-head rules, point deductions and split rounds are not modelled. This is a statistical projection, not a tip.
How good are the model's probabilities? Its match forecasts are scored publicly, every match, on the calibration record.
Use this table
Free to republish with credit and a link to this page (CC BY 4.0). Journalists: contact@football-charts.com for a club-specific version.
Cite as: Football Charts (2026). Primera RFEF - Group 1 2026/27 predicted table, run of 15 October 2026. https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/spain/primera-rfef-group-1/projection