Pontevedra vs Merida AD
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-10-11 · 16:30 CET
WLDDL
DWLLLThe score model made a Pontevedra win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pontevedra 1.57 – 0.92 Merida AD.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontevedra win | 52.2% | 41.9% | +10.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 29.6% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Merida AD win | 21.6% | 28.6% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | 44.9% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.0% | 25.3% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 50.8% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 31.2% | -2.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pontevedra 31.6 / Merida AD 11.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.