Cultural Leonesa vs Merida AD
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-09-06 · 16:00 CET
LWDLW
DWLLLThe score model made a Cultural Leonesa win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cultural Leonesa 1.50 – 0.96 Merida AD.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cultural Leonesa win | 48.9% | 48.3% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 29.2% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Merida AD win | 23.5% | 22.6% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 42.6% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.3% | 23.0% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | 47.0% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.6% | 29.2% | -1.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cultural Leonesa 22.2 / Merida AD 13 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.