Daegu vs Yongin
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-09-12 · 09:30 CET
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DLDLLThe score model made a Daegu win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Daegu 1.97 – 1.25 Yongin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daegu win | 53.5% | 61.2% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 21.6% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Yongin win | 23.5% | 17.2% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.4% | 59.8% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.2% | 38.9% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.0% | 56.4% | +5.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 40.9% | -10.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Daegu 20.9 / Yongin 21 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Daegu vs Yongin in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.