Yongin vs Suwon FC
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-09-05 · 12:00 CET
DDLDL
DDDWWThe score model made a Suwon FC win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Yongin 1.28 – 2.00 Suwon FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yongin win | 23.7% | 26.0% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 25.4% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Suwon FC win | 53.7% | 48.6% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.6% | 56.2% | +7.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.5% | 35.3% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | 58.4% | +4.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 37.9% | +1.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Yongin 18.2 / Suwon FC 18.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.