Gimhae vs Jeonnam
K League 2, South-Korea · 2026-09-05 · 12:00 CET
DDLLD
DDDLWThe score model made a Jeonnam win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimhae 1.01 – 1.90 Jeonnam.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimhae win | 19.2% | 34.2% | -15.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.3% | 27.4% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Jeonnam win | 57.6% | 38.4% | +19.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | 51.3% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.3% | 30.2% | +3.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 55.8% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 35.3% | -6.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gimhae 18.3 / Jeonnam 48.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.