Gimcheon Sangmu vs Gangwon
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-09-13 · 09:30 CET
DDWLD
DLDWDThe score model made a Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely outcome at 34%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimcheon Sangmu 1.11 – 1.10 Gangwon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 34.4% | 33.7% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.5% | 29.8% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Gangwon win | 34.0% | 36.6% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.8% | 43.3% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.1% | 23.4% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | 50.4% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 29.9% | -0.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gimcheon Sangmu 44.3 / Gangwon 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gimcheon Sangmu vs Gangwon in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.