Jeonbuk vs Seoul
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-09-12 · 09:30 CET
DLDLW
WLWLWThe score model made a Seoul win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jeonbuk 1.19 – 1.25 Seoul.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeonbuk win | 33.6% | 32.3% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.7% | 28.3% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Seoul win | 36.7% | 39.4% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | 50.8% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.0% | 30.0% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | 56.2% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 34.0% | -5.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jeonbuk 49 / Seoul 49 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jeonbuk vs Seoul in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.