Daejeon vs Pohang
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-09-12 · 12:00 CET
WWDDW
LDDWLThe score model made a Daejeon win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Daejeon 1.42 – 1.10 Pohang.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon win | 43.0% | 51.2% | -8.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 26.0% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| Pohang win | 28.2% | 22.7% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 49.5% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 28.7% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | 51.9% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.3% | 33.6% | -9.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Daejeon 47.8 / Pohang 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Daejeon vs Pohang in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.