Pohang vs Gimcheon Sangmu
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-09-09 · 12:30 CET
LDDWL
DDDWLThe score model made a Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pohang 1.11 – 1.19 Gimcheon Sangmu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pohang win | 32.8% | 36.5% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.6% | 30.5% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 36.6% | 33.0% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.3% | 40.4% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.0% | 21.0% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.7% | 47.8% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.0% | 28.3% | -2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pohang 47.3 / Gimcheon Sangmu 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.