Gwangju FC vs Jeju SK
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-09-09 · 12:30 CET
DLDDW
DWDWLThe score model made a Jeju SK win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gwangju FC 0.96 – 1.39 Jeju SK.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC win | 24.8% | 23.7% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 27.1% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Jeju SK win | 45.9% | 49.2% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.6% | 48.7% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.0% | 28.3% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | 51.9% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.4% | 33.4% | -10.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gwangju FC 47.1 / Jeju SK 47.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.