Gangwon vs Jeonbuk
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-09-09 · 12:30 CET
DDLDW
WDLDLThe score model made a Jeonbuk win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gangwon 0.97 – 1.17 Jeonbuk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gangwon win | 29.0% | 32.6% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.7% | 29.9% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Jeonbuk win | 39.3% | 37.5% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.0% | 42.8% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.8% | 23.3% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.9% | 50.0% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.1% | 29.5% | -3.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gangwon 46.4 / Jeonbuk 47.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.