Daejeon vs Anyang
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-09-09 · 12:30 CET
WWDDW
LLDWWThe score model made a Daejeon win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 3:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Daejeon 1.70 – 1.25 Anyang.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daejeon win | 47.1% | 60.7% | -13.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 22.4% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Anyang win | 27.1% | 16.9% | +10.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | 56.1% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.1% | 34.7% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 53.2% | +5.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.2% | 38.2% | -6.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Daejeon 47.1 / Anyang 36.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.