Incheon vs Bucheon FC 1995
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-09-08 · 12:30 CET
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LLDLLThe score model made an Incheon win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Incheon 1.17 – 0.98 Bucheon FC 1995.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incheon win | 39.0% | 49.8% | -10.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.9% | 28.2% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Bucheon FC 1995 win | 29.1% | 22.0% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.5% | 43.8% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.2% | 24.1% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.4% | 47.6% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.5% | 30.5% | -6.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Incheon 32.4 / Bucheon FC 1995 22.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.