Gimcheon Sangmu vs Gwangju FC
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-09-06 · 12:00 CET
DDDWL
DLDDWThe score model made a Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gimcheon Sangmu 1.65 – 0.85 Gwangju FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimcheon Sangmu win | 55.2% | 60.2% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 22.8% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| Gwangju FC win | 18.3% | 17.0% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 54.2% | -8.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 33.0% | -8.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | 51.8% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.4% | 36.3% | -7.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gimcheon Sangmu 43.1 / Gwangju FC 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.