Anyang vs Gangwon
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-09-06 · 12:00 CET
LLDWW
DDLDWThe score model made a Gangwon win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Anyang 1.18 – 1.27 Gangwon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anyang win | 33.0% | 27.9% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.7% | 28.7% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Gangwon win | 37.3% | 43.4% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.2% | 46.1% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.1% | 26.2% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 51.4% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 31.1% | +0.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Anyang 35.8 / Gangwon 45.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.