Jeju SK vs Ulsan HD
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-09-05 · 12:00 CET
DWDWL
DWWLLThe score model made an Ulsan HD win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jeju SK 1.22 – 1.39 Ulsan HD.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeju SK win | 31.9% | 30.2% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.4% | 27.4% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Ulsan HD win | 39.7% | 42.4% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | 52.5% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.7% | 31.3% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | 57.0% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 35.7% | -7.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jeju SK 46.7 / Ulsan HD 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.