Radomlje vs Maribor
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-09-13 · 20:15 CET
LLLDD
DWDWDThe score model made a Maribor win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Radomlje 1.08 – 1.92 Maribor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radomlje win | 19.7% | 18.7% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 22.5% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Maribor win | 55.8% | 58.8% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% | 60.1% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.4% | 39.4% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | 57.9% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.0% | 41.6% | -1.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Radomlje 46.4 / Maribor 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Radomlje vs Maribor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.