Fastest starters
Mura23%
8 of their 35 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Domzale35%
6 of their 17 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
🏆
Celje are 2025-2026 champions — 74 pts
Their xPTS said 68.2: a title won, outperforming the market.
2026-27
next season soon
The season in numbers
The outlier
+178.1uBlindly backing home wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-13.5 ptsPrimorje produced performances worth 14 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
36%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 24.3' on average.
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Prva liga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Home wins▲ +178.1u
164 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Prva liga match in 2025-2026: +178.1 units over 164 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▲ +8.8u
164 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Prva liga match in 2025-2026: +8.8 units over 164 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -2.5u
164 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Prva liga match in 2025-2026: -2.5 units over 164 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -25.5u
164 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Prva liga match in 2025-2026: -25.5 units over 164 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -40.3u
164 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Prva liga match in 2025-2026: -40.3 units over 164 flat-stake bets.Away wins▼ -191.8u
164 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Prva liga match in 2025-2026: -191.8 units over 164 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -510.5u
164 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Prva liga match in 2025-2026: -510.5 units over 164 flat-stake bets.Final table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celje | 74 | 68.2 | +5.8 | champions — earned it |
| 2 | Koper | 67 | 56.2 | +10.8 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | Bravo | 62 | 48.5 | +13.5 | outperformed expectations |
| 4 | O. Ljubljana | 55 | 57.0 | -2.0 | |
| 5 | Maribor | 53 | 61.2 | -8.2 | underperformed expectations |
| · · · | |||||
| 9 | Primorje | 23 | 36.5 | -13.5 | underperformed expectations |
| 10 | Domzale | 12 | 16.1 | -4.1 | |
| 11 | Nafta | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdown
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Statistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+