Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +19.0% at market prices across 52 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Radomlje produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 28.8' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
O. Ljubljana – Mura2026-10-10 18:15Home winModel 62.1%Implied 56.8%▲ +5.3%- Nafta – Bravo2026-10-11 13:00Away winModel 43.5%Implied 40.0%▲ +3.5%
- Grosuplje – Maribor2026-10-11 15:30Over 2.5Model 58.8%Implied 56.2%▲ +2.6%
- Celje – Aluminij2026-10-10 15:30Home winModel 69.0%Implied 67.1%▲ +1.9%
- Radomlje – Koper2026-10-10 13:00Under 1.5 HTModel 65.2%Implied 66.7%-1.5%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  O. Ljubljana– Mura | 2026-10-10 | 18:15 | Home win | 62.1% | 56.8% | ▲ +5.3% | 1.76 |
| 2 |  Nafta– Bravo | 2026-10-11 | 13:00 | Away win | 43.5% | 40.0% | ▲ +3.5% | 2.50 |
| 3 |  Grosuplje– Maribor | 2026-10-11 | 15:30 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 56.2% | ▲ +2.6% | 1.78 |
| 4 |  Celje– Aluminij | 2026-10-10 | 15:30 | Home win | 69.0% | 67.1% | ▲ +1.9% | 1.49 |
| 5 |  Radomlje– Koper | 2026-10-10 | 13:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 65.2% | 66.7% | -1.5% | 1.50 |
Add Prva liga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Prva liga schedule 10,000 times a day. Maribor win the 2026-2027 title in 38% of them, projecting ~66 points; Celje are next at 25%. At the other end, Radomlje finish in the bottom three in 94% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Celje's title chance up 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 21 | 66 | 58–74 | 38% | 93% | — |
| 2 | Celje | 12 | 64 | 56–72 | ▲25% | 88% | <1% |
| 3 | Koper | 18 | 62 | 54–70 | 17% | 82% | <1% |
| 4 | O. Ljubljana | 17 | 62 | 54–70 | 15% | 80% | <1% |
| 5 | Bravo | 19 | 58 | 49–66 | 5% | 53% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | Grosuplje | 11 | 37 | 30–45 | — | <1% | 68% |
| 9 | Mura | 10 | 36 | 29–44 | — | <1% | 74% |
| 10 | Radomlje | 5 | 30 | 22–38 | — | <1% | 94% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 131 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Prva liga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 21 | 21.2 | -0.2 | |
| 2 | Bravo | 19 | 13.9 | +5.1 | |
| 3 | Koper | 18 | 16.3 | +1.7 | |
| 4 | O. Ljubljana | 17 | 18.5 | -1.5 | |
| 5 | Aluminij | 14 | 12.5 | +1.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Grosuplje | 11 | 12.0 | -1.0 | |
| 9 | Mura | 10 | 12.1 | -2.1 | |
| 10 | Radomlje | 5 | 9.9 | -4.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+