The season in numbers
Blindly backing draws in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Radomlje produced performances worth 3 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Koper – O. Ljubljana2026-09-12 15:30Under 1.5 HT ✓77.6%vs 69.4%▲ +8.2%- Bravo – Celje2026-09-12 18:15Home win ✓28.2%vs 23.7%▲ +4.5%
- Mura – Aluminij2026-09-13 13:00Under 2.5 ✓55.6%vs 52.9%▲ +2.7%
- Radomlje – Maribor2026-09-13 18:15FT U3.564.5%vs 65.8%-1.3%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Koper– O. Ljubljana | 2026-09-12 | 15:30 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 77.6% | 69.4% | ▲ +8.2% | 1.44 | |
| 2 |  Bravo– Celje | 2026-09-12 | 18:15 | Home win ✓ | 28.2% | 23.7% | ▲ +4.5% | 4.22 | |
| 3 |  Mura– Aluminij | 2026-09-13 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 55.6% | 52.9% | ▲ +2.7% | 1.89 | |
| 4 |  Radomlje– Maribor | 2026-09-13 | 18:15 | FT U3.5 | 64.5% | 65.8% | -1.3% | 1.52 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Prva liga schedule 10,000 times a day. Celje win the 2026-2027 title in 39% of them, projecting ~67 points; Maribor are next at 31%. At the other end, Radomlje finish in the bottom three in 84% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celje | 11 | 67 | 59–76 | 39% | 97% | — |
| 2 | Maribor | 17 | 66 | 58–74 | 31% | 95% | <1% |
| 3 | Koper | 15 | 64 | 55–72 | 18% | 91% | <1% |
| 4 | O. Ljubljana | 14 | 61 | 53–69 | 10% | 84% | <1% |
| 5 | Bravo | 13 | 53 | 45–61 | 1% | 31% | 2% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | Grosuplje | 8 | 39 | 30–47 | — | <1% | 55% |
| 9 | Aluminij | 10 | 38 | 30–46 | — | <1% | 58% |
| 10 | Radomlje | 5 | 33 | 25–41 | — | <1% | 84% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 141 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/slovenia/prva-liga/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Prva liga live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/slovenia/prva-liga">Prva liga stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Prva liga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 17 | 17.1 | -0.1 | |
| 2 | Koper | 15 | 13.1 | +1.9 | |
| 3 | O. Ljubljana | 14 | 15.5 | -1.5 | |
| 4 | Bravo | 13 | 11.9 | +1.1 | |
| 5 | Celje | 11 | 12.2 | -1.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Mura | 9 | 9.6 | -0.6 | |
| 9 | Grosuplje | 8 | 8.9 | -0.9 | |
| 10 | Radomlje | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+