Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctThe season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +28.0% at market prices across 62 matches. 2 other markets also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Radomlje produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 28.4' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Radomlje – Mura2026-10-27 16:00Home winModel 42.1%Implied 35.2%▲ +6.9%- Grosuplje – Bravo2026-10-29 16:30Away winModel 49.8%Implied 43.1%▲ +6.7%
- Nafta – Aluminij2026-10-28 16:00Under 1.5 HTModel 72.7%Implied 67.1%▲ +5.6%
- O. Ljubljana – Celje2026-10-28 18:30Under 1.5 HTModel 73.7%Implied 69.4%▲ +4.3%
- Koper – Maribor2026-10-27 18:00Home winModel 40.0%Implied 39.2%▲ +0.8%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Radomlje– Mura | 2026-10-27 | 16:00 | Home win | 42.1% | 35.2% | ▲ +6.9% | 2.84 |
| 2 |  Grosuplje– Bravo | 2026-10-29 | 16:30 | Away win | 49.8% | 43.1% | ▲ +6.7% | 2.32 |
| 3 |  Nafta– Aluminij | 2026-10-28 | 16:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 72.7% | 67.1% | ▲ +5.6% | 1.49 |
| 4 |  O. Ljubljana– Celje | 2026-10-28 | 18:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 73.7% | 69.4% | ▲ +4.3% | 1.44 |
| 5 |  Koper– Maribor | 2026-10-27 | 18:00 | Home win | 40.0% | 39.2% | ▲ +0.8% | 2.55 |
Add Prva liga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Prva liga schedule 10,000 times a day. Maribor win the 2026-2027 title in 42% of them, projecting ~67 points; Celje are next at 27%. At the other end, Radomlje finish in the bottom three in 91% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Celje's title chance up 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 25 | 67 | 59–75 | 42% | 97% | — |
| 2 | Celje | 16 | 65 | 57–73 | ▲27% | 93% | — |
| 3 | Koper | 22 | 63 | 55–71 | ▼17% | 88% | <1% |
| 4 | O. Ljubljana | 21 | 62 | 54–69 | 12% | 85% | <1% |
| 5 | Bravo | 20 | 54 | 47–62 | 1% | 33% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 8 | Mura | 12 | 37 | 29–44 | — | <1% | 72% |
| 9 | Grosuplje | 11 | 33 | 25–40 | — | <1% | 88% |
| 10 | Radomlje | 7 | 31 | 24–39 | — | <1% | 91% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 121 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Prva liga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 25 | 24.6 | +0.4 | |
| 2 | Koper | 22 | 20.1 | +1.9 | |
| 3 | O. Ljubljana | 21 | 22.2 | -1.2 | |
| 4 | Bravo | 20 | 17.1 | +2.9 | |
| 5 | Nafta | 17 | 13.2 | +3.8 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 8 | Mura | 12 | 14.5 | -2.5 | |
| 9 | Grosuplje | 11 | 13.7 | -2.7 | |
| 10 | Radomlje | 7 | 11.8 | -4.8 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+